SEIRS epidemics in growing populations

نویسندگان

  • Tom Britton
  • D'esir'e Ou'edraogo
چکیده

An SEIRS epidemic with disease fatalities is introduced in a growing population (modelled as a super-critical linear birth and death process). The study of the initial phase of the epidemic is stochastic, while the analysis of the major outbreaks is deterministic. Depending on the values of the parameters, the following scenarios are possible. i) The disease dies out quickly, only infecting few; ii) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected individuals grows exponentially, but the fraction of infected individuals remains negligible; iii) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected grows initially quicker than the population, the disease fatalities diminish the growth rate of the population, but it remains super critical, and the fraction of infected go to an endemic equilibrium; iv) the epidemic takes off, the number of infected individuals grows initially quicker than the population, the diseases fatalities turn the exponential growth of the population to an exponential decay.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Modelling the Seasonal Epidemics of Respiratory Syncytial Virus in Young Children

BACKGROUND Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of paediatric morbidity. Mathematical models can be used to characterise annual RSV seasonal epidemics and are a valuable tool to assess the impact of future vaccines. OBJECTIVES Construct a mathematical model of seasonal epidemics of RSV and by fitting to a population-level RSV dataset, obtain a better understanding of RSV transmi...

متن کامل

The emerging face of the HIV epidemic in the Middle East and North Africa

PURPOSE OF REVIEW A volume of quality HIV data has materialized recently in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This review provides a thematic narrative of the patterns of HIV infection transmission in this region in light of these data. RECENT FINDINGS Tens of integrated bio-behavioral surveillance surveys among hard-to-reach key populations at higher risk have been conducted in MENA i...

متن کامل

Intraspecific trait variation and colonization sequence alter community assembly and disease epidemics

When individuals from multiple populations colonize a new habitat patch, intraspecific trait variation can make the arrival order of colonists an important factor for subsequent population and community dynamics. In particular, intraspecific priority effects (IPEs) allow early arrivers to limit the growth or establishment of later arrivers, even when competitively inferior on a per-capita basis...

متن کامل

On a nonautonomous SEIRS model in epidemiology.

In this paper, we derive some threshold conditions for permanence and extinction of diseases that can be described by a nonautonomous SEIRS epidemic model. Under the quite weak assumptions, we establish some sufficient conditions to prove the permanence and extinction of disease. Some new threshold values are determined.

متن کامل

Deterministic Seirs Epidemic Model for Modeling Vital Dynamics, Vaccinations, and Temporary Immunity

In this paper, the author proposes a new SEIRS model that generalizes several classical deterministic epidemic models (e.g., SIR and SIS and SEIR and SEIRS) involving the relationships between the susceptible S, exposed E, infected I, and recovered R individuals for understanding the proliferation of infectious diseases. As a way to incorporate the most important features of the previous models...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2017